Horizon 2040 : des mesures concrètes pour un virage vers le soutien à domicile

This report was prepared by a research team composed of Nicholas-James Clavet, Réjean Hébert, Pierre-Carl Michaud, Julien Navaux, and Michel Raîche. It follows the report: Horizon 2040 : projection des impacts du soutien à l’autonomie au Québec submitted to the Commissaire à la santé et au bien-être du Québec in November 2023, which includes a prospective analysis of the status quo, where the current system is maintained.

In this new report, our research team has constructed and projected an alternative scenario regarding long-term care that is compared to the status quo until 2040. This scenario demonstrates that it is possible to significantly increase home support while reducing pressures on human resources and nursing homes in the public sector, and at a slightly lower cost than projected in 2040 under the status quo.

These works are conducted using the SimSAD simulation model, which allows for projecting autonomy support needs, services provided, workforce needs, and the associated costs of these services in Quebec.